Study could serve as a guide for future Ashland business development

Ashland city leaders reviewed a draft study last Tuesday intended to help launch a long-term plan to boost employment and the local economy.

During the joint study session of the Ashland City Council and Planning Commission, officials received a rundown of available land for future commercial or industrial businesses.

According to the draft study by Seattle-based Community Attributes Inc., the city has the potential to develop 81 acres, primarily on the Croman Mill Site at the south end of town, and property near the railroad district.

If these areas and others identified in the study are developed, it could produce 1,200 commercial jobs on about 60 acres and 200 industrial jobs on about 20 acres, said Elliot Weiss, project manager for Community Attributes.

The study is part of an economic analysis required by the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development to show there is enough land to meet economic growth needs over the next 20 years.

More outreach sessions are planned in the future before the study is adopted by the City Council, expected sometime in June.

The study compiled a number of statistics that reflect impressions that many Ashland residents already have about the city, but did offer some surprises.

“In large part, the data confirms what we know and think of Ashland,” Weiss said.

Ashland has had only a slight increase in population, with 20,095 residents in 2010 to 21,579 in 2024. Some councilors were under the assumption that Ashland’s population had been dropping for years, but the study showed there was only a slight decline from the peak of 21,642 in 2022, with a general trend that showed year-over-year increases.

Weiss, whose company is also doing a similar analysis for Medford, said, “Medford is growing faster than in Ashland.”

Ashland has an older population than Medford or the rest of the state. The 55-plus age group has continued to increase in Ashland, representing 62% of the population in 2022 compared to 32% in 2010.

Medford has had a more modest increase in the 55-plus age group, accounting for 30% in 2010, but increasing to 32% in 2022. Jackson County as a whole has also seen a modest bump in 55-plus residents, with 33% in 2019, notching up to 35% in 2022.

One statistic that stood out in the study is that only 37% of Ashlanders live and work in the city, and 63% of its residents are renters.

Lisa Verner, Planning Commission chair, said, “I was surprised that there is a high percentage of renters.”

Weiss said Ashland’s leisure and hospitality shows greater strength than the region. A two-person household size is the most common in Ashland, making up 42% of the population, followed by one-person households at 34%.

Three-person households make up 14% of the population, followed by four-person households at 9%. Ashland has 18% of its population identifying as a non-white race or ethnicity in 2022, compared to Medford at 26% and Jackson County at 22%.

Ashland, Medford and Jackson County have all seen increases in their non-white populations, but Medford has seen the largest jump. Job growth in Ashland has fluctuated over the past 20 years, with dips during the recession in 2010 and the pandemic in 2020.

In 2022, the number of jobs was 9,104 compared to 8,312 in 2002.

The service industry and retail sector are the city’s two largest employers. In 2013, the service industry represented 65% of the jobs, and in 2023, it represented 60%.

Retail has stayed relatively the same at 18% in 2013 and 17% in 2023. Construction, agriculture, transportation and other sectors have shown the biggest increase, from 4% in 2013 to 10% in 2023.

Planning Commissioner Susan MacCracken Jain called the study’s projected decline in information technology jobs over the next 20 years “dubious.”

She said it’s more likely that there has been an increase in IT work here. The draft study showed 189 IT jobs in 2023, dropping to 147 in 2043, based on information obtained from the Oregon Employment Department.

Weiss said the manner in which data is collected could miss many remote IT workers.

“If someone worked for a San Jose company here, he would be counted for there, and not in Ashland,” Weiss said.

MacCracken Jain said Ashland needs a public space to help foster a stronger IT community.

“That could be an interesting discussion point,” she said.

Planning Commissioner Eric Herron wondered why the analysis didn’t look at job creation related to Ashland schools or Southern Oregon University. SOU is in the process of developing major expansion plans that could add jobs.

Weiss said the study doesn’t consider government jobs in its analysis because the Oregon requirement for the economic analysis is focused on commercial or industrial areas. Ashland’s total land area, which includes the urban growth boundary, is 4,256 acres, almost half of it zoned for single-family residential. Commercial-zoned land is only 4% of the city.

The area median household income in Ashland was $71,800 in 2023, with the majority of households — 59% making above 80% of the area median income in 2021. Among renter-occupied households, 61% earn 80% or less of area median income. For home-owner households, 70% earn above the median income.

While Ashland generally has a lot of positives for a city this size, Weiss said the city also has headwinds, including the threat of wildfires, earthquakes and drought.

Reach freelance writer Damian Mann at [email protected]. This story first appeared at Ashland.news.